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Iran's moderate president Hassan Rouhani has made a sustained effort to mend relations with western nations. Photograph: Adrees Latif/Reuters
Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program could be undermined by a reluctance on the part of the US Congress to relax a complex network of economic sanctions, according to experts and diplomats monitoring forthcoming talks in Geneva.
Meetings between Iran and six leading powers are scheduled to begin in Switzerland in two weeks, following a sustained effort on the part of Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, to mend relations with the west and secure a deal that would ease debilitating sanctions.
On Thursday, Wendy Sherman, the US under-secretary of state for political affairs, said Iran could expect some limited relief from sanctions if it took confidence-building steps to allay concerns about its nuclear ambitions.
However, the vast network of overlapping US sanctions, which have built up over three decades, cannot be easily unpicked by the Obama administration without the support of both houses of Congress.
"If – and it is a big 'if' – the president needs to use an easing of sanctions to provide incentive to the Iranians, or to acknowledge a gesture on their part, our feeling is: it will be very difficult for the administration to deliver that," one senior European diplomat said.
Hawks in the House of Representatives in particular are in no mood to compromise. Two months ago, with bipartisan support, the House passed a bill to tighten the economic noose on Iran. The Guardian has obtained a copy of a second draft bill that goes further: approving the use of military force to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
The bill states that the US would be "wholly capable, willing and ready to use military force to prevent Iran from obtaining or developing a nuclear weapons capability" and offers "consent" to the president should he wish to take action.
Trent Franks, the conservative congressman behind the bill, told the Guardian that it was designed to strengthen the president's hand during talks and "inject into the discussion the importance of Mr Obama not making a bad deal – because a bad deal is worse than no deal at all".
Giving evidence before a Senate committee on Thursday, Sherman urged lawmakers to hold off on imposing more sanctions before a meeting with Iranian officials in Geneva on 15 and 16 October.
The UK, Germany, France, Russia and China will all participate in the talks, but it is accepted the most important negotiations will be bilateral meetings between Iran's delegation and the US. Technical experts from all six countries are meeting in the coming days, as a prelude to the talks.
Ramin Asgard, a consultant who previously ran the State Department's Iran desk in Dubai – the US government's primary field office monitoring Tehran – said "a major transformation" would be required on Capitol Hill, which has "gotten used to the narrative of Iran being this threat and negative actor".
It would require a "sea change" in congressional attitudes to get a deal through, he said.
The basic contours of an agreement are expected to involve Iran opening up to rigorous inspections, destroying stockpiles of 2% enriched uranium and committing to a civilian nuclear program, in return for sanctions relief, although Iran has indicated it may have new proposals.
An early barometer of how serious Iran is, is likely to occur prior to the official meeting in Geneva, when the foreign minister, Javad Zarif, is expected to circulate formal ideas that will form the start of talks.
"I hope they present us with some ideas in advance of that so that when we sit down to work we're not beginning without some grist to the mill," a senior State Department official said.
Any deal over Iran's nuclear program would be months or even years away, but it would likely be contingent upon the Obama administration selling an Iranian deal to Congress. With EU sanctions closely bound with those imposed by the US, and international companies unlikely to do business with Iran unless permitted to do so by all major powers, other countries will be heavily dependent upon developments in Washington, diplomats say.
Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, at the Brookings Institution thinktank, said US Treasury officials, who have spent years trying to find ways to better enforce sanctions, are scrambling to consider how they might quickly alleviate those restrictions if negotiations with Iran go well.
"Even early progress, even minor steps, will require an enormous amount of work on the part of the administration – work that, as far as I'm told, has not yet been prepared."
Maloney and other officials indicated that the administration does have some room for manoeuvre, particularly under presidential waiver authority, but a final deal would almost certainly need congressional backing. Another diplomatic source said the US administration had control over "significant enough portions" of the sanctions to incentivise the Iranian side.
"If they feel they need to offer something, they can – and they can act on it," the source said. "Congress will choose how to handle the sanctions it has put in place."
The State Department's deputy spokeswoman, Marie Harf, said this week that Iran's desire to improve the economic situation in the country was at the heart of the nuclear talks. "Obviously, sanctions play into that, and we'll keep working with Congress on the best way to do all of this going forward," she said.
However, it is not clear whether Congress – and in particular hardline Republicans currently calling the shots in the House – will back any final deal, particularly within the timeframe of six months being mooted by Iran.
The bill that passed the House at the end of July, the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act 2013, which proposes a dramatic tightening of sanctions, is now with the Senate. One provision seeks to reduce Iran's exports of oil by a further million barrels a day which, if current estimates of its oil sales are believed, would reduce its exports to near zero.
It is currently being held at the Senate banking committee, apparently out of consideration for the forthcoming talks, but would "probably get through tomorrow" if it was put to a wider vote, Maloney said.
The author of the bill, Ed Royce, the Republican chairman of the foreign affairs committee, responded to Iran's diplomatic offensive at the United Nations last week by saying that Congress should "double down" on sanctions. Trent Franks plans to introduce his new bill approving of military force against Iran through the same committee next week.
Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, made clear on Monday she would prefer the US not impose additional sanctions before the nuclear talks.
"I would like to get to Geneva with the best possible atmosphere to really have these negotiations," she said.
This week's government shutdown underscored the influence wielded by conservatives in the Republican-dominated House, and the stronghold rightwingers have over the Republican speaker of the House, John Boehner.
Franks said that he and others in the Tea Party caucus would be inclined to disbelieve any Iranian promises made during negotiations – and would not be easily persuaded of the need to lift or even ease sanctions on Iran any time soon. "I don't think we would be very amenable," he said. "I think Speaker Boehner understands the gravity of the situation."
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