On the question of the effects of the impending government shoutdown the PBS News Hour was virtually silent this week. It was all about process, who's up, who's down politically if the shutdown occurs. On Sunday, Sept. 29th morning network news shows there was the same problem. The New York Times' major news article covering the issue has the same problem. The lesser article, "Last Shutdown Is a Lesson lost on Capitol Hill as a New Crisis Looms," suggests that it would harm the economy but doesn't say why. Sunday's Guardian story states possible effects but is sadly lacking in developing the details.
The best I can do is to post the following from the Los Angeles Times:
Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), from left, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D-Md.) hold a news conference after the Senate voted to finance the government through Nov. 15. (Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg / September 28, 2013)
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WASHINGTON — The Pentagon would furlough 400,000 civilian workers and temporarily stop paying death benefits to military families. The National Park Service would close all 401 national parks and give overnight campers two days to leave. Calls to the IRS would go unanswered.
Those are among the effects that the public probably will notice first if federal agencies start shutting down Tuesday because Congress has failed to pass a bill to provide money for the new fiscal year.
Agencies began disclosing their contingency plans Friday, and the announcements immediately became part of the partisan back-and-forth over whether the government will shut down and who is to blame.
Unlike some other Washington budget battles, the impact of a shutdown would quickly become visible. Approximately half the government's civilian workforce, about 1.2 million employees, is expected to face furloughs. The Pentagon would have to stop paying service members, although they would still be required to report to duty.
The first paychecks that would not be issued — if a shutdown lasted long enough — would be the ones due on Oct. 15, said Undersecretary of Defense Robert F. Hale, the Pentagon's top financial officer, who briefed reporters. In a shutdown, the department would also be forced to stop other payments, including death benefits, Hale said.
"We would have no authority to pay the money, and in that case the payment would be delayed," he said.
A shutdown would grow increasingly difficult to manage over time, as the military runs out of options for delaying operations and is prohibited from entering into any new contracts with vendors, he said. "The severity effects would grow quickly if it turns out to be long," Hale said.
Because Congress has failed to pass any of the money bills needed to fund government agencies, most will have to begin shutting down when the new budget year begins Tuesday. The exceptions are programs that do not require annual appropriations, including Social Security and Medicare, and those deemed essential to protect life, property and national security. That means that fire suppression missions would continue, for example, but parks would close.
Furloughed employees could be paid retroactively if Congress passed a law authorizing it. Retroactive pay was approved after the shutdowns of the mid-1990s but is not guaranteed.
According to the Census Bureau, there are 169,000 civilian government workers in California, 124,000 in Maryland, 89,000 in Florida and 52,000 in Illinois. Most of them face the possibility of being furloughed.
The last time a comparable shutdown happened, in 1995 and 1996, the effect on the economy was substantial. Closing parks cost nearby businesses about $14 million each day, according to the Congressional Research Service. The nonprofit National Parks Conservation Assn. projects that the hit this time would be more than twice as large.
At the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area, workers were already preparing to shutter the campgrounds and close hiking trails. Almost all the workers at the park would be furloughed, spokeswoman Kate Kuykendall said.
In the event of a shutdown, "we will close all visitor facilities," she said.
Overnight visitors at the popular Circle X Ranch campground would have two days to leave. Filming and weddings on parkland would cease, and companies that provide horseback rides on park trails would be suspended.
"We'll be closing the gates to our parks and posting signs," Kuykendall said.
The same type of closure scenario would play out at the nation's 400 other national parks and monuments.
About 21,400 park service employees nationwide would be ordered not to report to work. Also facing that prospect are 37,000 employees who manage federal lands and coastal activities for the Interior Department.
Because most law enforcement functions are considered essential, the impact would vary widely from federal department to department.
At the Department of Homeland Security, which includes the U.S. Secret Service, the Coast Guard, the Transportation Security Administration, Customs and Border Protection, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement, most of the 231,117 workers would remain on the job. Officials said 31,295 would be furloughed.
By contrast, more than half of the Department of Health and Human Services' 78,000 workers would be furloughed.
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